Years 3–6 · Week 3 of 12
Chance, Predictions and Patterns
Learning goals
By the end, you can…
- Describe probability as how likely an outcome is.
- Make a prediction before running a chance experiment.
- Compare results from 10, 50 and 100 trials.
- Explain why quantum experiments use repeated preparations and measurements.
What you already know
Connect to a familiar idea
You may not know whether the next coin toss will be heads, but you can describe what often happens across many tosses.
- Count and compare groups up to 100.
- Read a simple picture graph or bar chart.
Opening story
Start with something familiar
Two students toss the same fair coin ten times and get different results. Neither result proves that the coin changed. More trials give a clearer picture of its long-run pattern.
Plain-English explanation
Build the idea carefully
Predict one result
Probability describes how likely an outcome is, not a promise about the next trial. A single result can be hard to predict even when the possible outcomes are known.
Look for a repeated pattern
Repeated trials usually show a steadier pattern than a small number of trials. Quantum scientists repeat the same preparation and measurement to estimate outcome probabilities.
Try the model
Predict, run and compare
Choose a coin, spinner or two-outcome model. Predict first, then run 10, 50 or 100 trials.
Ready. Adjust a control, then run the model.
What this model shows: The virtual quantum option models repeated measurements of the same prepared state. It is not a complete laboratory experiment.
Text alternative for this interactive
Use the supplied tables of 10, 50 and 100 results and shade a bar for each outcome.
Expected observation: The exact counts vary between runs, while larger trial sets usually show a clearer proportion near the selected chance.
Guided activity
Prediction before evidence
- Write your predicted counts for each outcome.
- Run ten trials and record the result.
- Run one hundred trials and compare both proportions with your prediction.
Evidence to collect: A completed table records the prediction, the trial count and both outcome counts before drawing a conclusion.
Glossary
Words to know
- probability
- A description of how likely an outcome is.
- trial
- One run of an experiment.
- outcome
- The result recorded in a trial.
- pattern
- A regular feature seen across a set of results.
Short recap
Keep these ideas
- Probability does not tell us the next result with certainty.
- Predictions should be compared with recorded evidence.
- Repeated quantum measurements reveal a probability pattern.
Knowledge check
4 clear questions
Choose an answer for immediate feedback. You may retry, and your best submitted score is kept.
Explore More Optional extension for Years 5–6
A result such as 48 out of 100 is a proportion. A larger sample often estimates the long-run chance better, but it does not have to match it exactly.
Try this
Convert the two outcome counts from 100 trials into percentages, then compare two independent runs.
Adult support Teacher and parent notes
Discuss
- Ask learners to commit to a prediction before pressing run.
- Discuss streaks without calling a fair process broken.
- Keep classical random devices distinct from quantum measurement while comparing data methods.
Answer guidance
Look for recorded counts and cautious language such as 'usually closer' rather than a claim that 100 trials must be exact.
Offline activity
Toss a coin or draw coloured counters with replacement. Pool class results to create a larger sample.
Safety
Use counters large enough not to be a choking risk. Keep tossed coins away from faces and walkways.
Sources and further reading
Checked references for this lesson
These sources support the lesson’s main scientific claims. Links open on the source organisation’s site.
- Quantum information IBM Quantum Learning · official learning module · checked 2026-08-02
- Introduction IBM Quantum Learning · official learning module · checked 2026-08-02
- Classical information IBM Quantum Learning · official learning module · checked 2026-08-02
Content review: Reviewed on 2026-08-02.